US perception of Iran-China Relations: A Comparison of 2026 Annual Threat Assessment and Iran-China Fact Sheet

کد مقاله : 1080-IRANCHINA (R1)

نویسندگان

مرضیه جوادی ارجمند * دانشگاه تهران

چکیده مقاله

The expanding relationship between China and Iran has often been viewed as a broader alignment between states that challenge US interests. There are; however, differences in terms of how Sino-Iran cooperation is interpreted within different US institutions. As both Iran and China are considered US adversaries posing threats to US national security and interests, the present paper is an attempt to see how Sino-Iran cooperation is interpreted through two different institutional lenses which provide part of the input for foreign policy choices. For this purpose, two US government documents, one from an executive branch agency and the other published by a legislative branch commission are chosen to examine the differences in their assessment of Iran-China relations. The Annual Threat Assessment (ATA) released on March 2026 by the Director of National Intelligence presents the evaluation of the US intelligence community of the threats posed by China and Iran to US national security and interests. The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, a commission created by the US Congress in 2000, also published the China-Iran Fact Sheet in March 2026, which is a primer on Sino-Iran relationship. Employing a conceptual framework that takes into account institutional differences in the assessment of foreign policy issues, the paper conducts a qualitative content analysis of both documents to examine how the two documents characterize China, Iran, and their bilateral relationship across economic, military, technological, diplomatic, and geopolitical dimensions. The findings reveal that both documents are concerned about the strategic consequences of China-Iran cooperation but differ in their characterization of its depth and strategic meaning. The ATA 2026 characterizes China-Iran cooperation as “selective cooperation” and avoids referring to the relationship as an “adversary alignment.” On the other hand, the China-Iran Fact Sheet describes Sino-Iran relations as “strategic partnership” and identifies it as part of an informal “Axis of Autocracy” while alluding to the asymmetric nature of this relationship as China avoids formal defense commitments to Iran. The paper argues that the divergence in the assessment of Sino-Iran relations stems from the differences in institutional purpose and analytical perspective. While the Iran-China Fact Sheet focuses on the implications of Iran-China cooperation for US economic and national security interests, the ATA evaluates and prioritizes threats to US national security and interests. Hence, the same Iran-China relationship can be characterized as both selective cooperation and a strategic partnership, depending on the institutional framework through which it is analyzed. The findings suggest that the key challenge associated with China-Iran relations may not be the creation of a formal anti-American alliance, but rather the aggregate impacts of their economic, diplomatic, technological, and security collaborations, which could bolster both states’ capacity to withstand U.S. pressure.

کلیدواژه ها

Iran, China, Annual Threat Assessment, Iran-China Fact Sheet, Selective Cooperation, Strategic Partnership

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